In 2009, the haze of the financial crisis has continued to affect the market since the beginning of the year, and has particularly affected exports. However, under the background of the big policy of stimulating domestic demand, overseas sales and domestic trends, sales of medium- and heavy-duty trucks and large and medium-sized passenger vehicles from January to November have exceeded market expectations at the beginning of the year. In 2009, the commercial vehicle industry firmly adhered to the market and demonstrated its ability to resist risks and respond to the market. In 2010, whether the commercial vehicle industry can continue to maintain such an increase, it is still too early to be conclusive, but it should be possible to continue the upward trend.

In December last year, the bus market was "cold and boneless." Some people predict that the industry will experience a 20% to 30% decline this year, and winter will continue into next year. This year's market performance brought a bit of comfort to the industry.

Medium bus into the industry highlights

Compared with road passenger coaches and tourist coaches, the demand for the bus market is relatively stable and is less affected by the financial crisis. But the bus market is also quietly changing. The rise of the secondary and tertiary urban public transport market has become the biggest highlight of this year. With the implementation of the National III emission standards and the importance attached to energy conservation and emission reduction by governments at all levels, bus updates for second and third-tier cities have been put on the agenda.

In the past two years, the Beijing Olympic Games and the Shanghai World Expo have led to the surge of public exchange vehicles in first-tier cities. However, the peaks of shifts brought about by large-scale activities can not be found. After two or three years of large-scale replacement, the number of buses in first-tier cities has almost been updated, and the market for the next few years is limited. This year, only Jinan has a large-scale transfer for the National Games, and the market for other first-tier cities is relatively flat. The second- and third-tier cities market has become the star market for buses this year.

The increase in market demand in second- and third-tier cities has created opportunities for more companies. In the past, the competition in the secondary and tertiary markets was insufficient, and the local protection was relatively strong. The procurement of public transport in the second and third-tier cities will become more standardized and transparent this year, and there will be a trend of cross-convergence in corporate sales.

Changes in the structure of the bus market have also led to changes in vehicle demand. In the first-tier cities, large buses are the mainstream of the market due to road conditions, passenger flow, and other reasons, but this does not apply to second and third-tier cities. Among the various models, large-scale buses have experienced more declines. This type of vehicle is basically used in large cities. Now it is mainly used for second-tier and third-tier cities. This has increased the demand for medium-sized buses.

The emergence of medium-sized buses has raised new requirements for bus companies. From the perspective of market characteristics, the demand for buses in second-tier and third-tier cities is relatively small, and the economic level is relatively low. Geographical environments and cultural environments vary greatly from place to place. This requires bus companies to develop adaptive products for these markets.

The road passenger car is greatly changed from small

This year's road buses are facing the pain of transition. With the further intensification of the competition in the public railways, the highway passenger transport lines parallel to the high-speed railway passenger dedicated lines have changed from gold lines to “chicken ribs.” Highway passenger transport companies have begun to seek differentiated ways of survival, and their choice has a direct impact on the bus companies. future development.

Panic and caution are the psychological status of the current road passenger transport companies. How large is the impact of railway passenger transport? Can't open the main line? What lines will you invest in later? This state of the passenger transport company directly affects the decision of the bus company. In the first half of the year, most bus companies concentrated their efforts on promotion and publicity in areas such as buses, which weakened the branding of road passenger cars. After half a year's precipitation, in the second half of the year, the industry’s judgment on the competition in the public railways gradually returned to rationality, and panic sentiment eased.

It is worth mentioning that large-scale highway buses with higher added value have performed poorly this year. Many local governments do not issue passes to double-decker buses, causing many passenger companies to wait and see. This year, many passenger transport companies have opened up new lines connecting with the trunk lines. The sales of medium and short-distance passenger cars, which are dominated by 1989-meter cars, have increased. With the further improvement of railway construction, the proportion of medium- and light-duty highway passenger cars will increase in the next three years.

Deterioration of the tourist bus market

The tourist bus market is another heavy hit area for the passenger car industry this year. As the financial crisis struck, many tourists tightened their moneybags. Under the influence of the financial crisis, in 2009, the contradiction of excess transport capacity in the tourism market was more prominent than ever.

It is worth mentioning that, after the road passenger transport suffered the railway squeezing, many passenger transport companies had excess capacity and entering the passenger transport market became the first choice for passenger transport companies. Ningbo Gongyun Group and Shanxi Automobile Group Jinlong Jietai Transportation & Trade Co., Ltd. entered the tourist passenger market, which fully demonstrated this point.

On the face of it, it is not true that the transfer of passenger transport companies to the tourism market does not affect the renewal of vehicles. The profit of tourism passenger transport is not high at all. After the road passenger transport company enters the tourism industry, it will bring about the integration of the tourism passenger transport industry. The weaker companies will be squeezed out and the tourism passenger transport order will be rebuilt soon. After the reorganization, there will inevitably be a vehicle stoppage or delay in renewal, which will affect the overall purchase volume. The tourism passenger transport market may not be able to recover to a certain extent next year.

Two major concerns need to be vigilant

Since the third quarter, the lagging sales of large and medium-sized passenger cars began to return to normal, but this did not bring about an increase in the profit rate. From the perspective of several listed bus companies, the third quarterly report shows that Yutong realized operating income of RMB 5.833 billion in the first nine months of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 1.29%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was RMB 337 million, a year-on-year decrease of 15.20%. The first three quarters of earnings per share of 0.65 yuan. In January-September, Zhongtong achieved a total operating income of 1.093 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.92%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 0.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.54%, and basic earnings per share was 0.03 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 66.67%.

Not only is it a listed company, but the profit of the entire bus industry this year is no doubt lower than last year. The decline in profits was partly due to changes in the sales structure. Large passenger buses have always been relatively profitable for bus companies, and sales of this model have declined this year. On the contrary, although medium-sized passenger cars have performed outstandingly, their profits have been relatively low, which has led to lower overall profits. In addition, this year's bus market is constantly raging with smoke and smoke, and the price war between companies further weakens profits. Now that users have adapted to low-priced products, they are very sensitive to prices, and it is not easy to restore them. Many bus companies look forward to the next round of emission standards switching.

In addition, the weak export market will continue to restrict the development of the passenger car industry. Some industry insiders believe that the real recovery of overseas markets may have to wait until the first half of 2011. The road for overseas nuggets of bus companies is not smooth.

In order to change the existing passive structure, there are three roads that the bus industry can take: one is industry integration; the other is bigger and stronger; and the third is finding new markets. Passenger car companies must not only "winter", but also intensively work hard to lay a good foundation for the network and services so that they can remain unchanged.



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